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Mark C. N. Sullivan is an editor at a Massachusetts university. He is married and the father of three children.
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Irish Elk
 
Wednesday, January 06, 2010  


Where there's smoke

Is there a chance of a GOP upset in the Massachusetts Senate race?

Two weeks before the vote Rasmussen has Republican Scott Brown trailing Democrat Martha Coakley by nine points – and by only two points among those who say they definitely plan to vote. Brown holds a big lead among independents.

Both candidates get better than 70% of the vote from members of their respective parties, but Brown leads 65% to 21% among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties. In Massachusetts, however, Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans and it is very difficult for the GOP to compete except in special circumstances.

Special elections are typically decided by who shows up to vote and it is clear from the data that Brown’s supporters are more enthusiastic. In fact, among those who are absolutely certain they will vote, Brown pulls to within two points of Coakley. That suggests a very low turnout will help the Republican and a higher turnout is better for the Democrat.


Sissy Willis is among conservative bloggers hammering the case for Brown as a critical Vote 41 against Obamacare. Laura Ingraham was touting Brown on her show this morning. At RedState Martin Knight declares:

From now until 01/19, every day is Scott Brown day: donate and volunteer.

So far the national GOP hasn't been much help. Jules Crittenden wonders:

What’s always mystified me is why the national GOP showed so little interest in kicking off the 2010 mid-term elections with a strong showing, if not a win in Kennedy country … especially when that health thing could be riding on it. A revolt in the erstwhile Kennedy satrapy of Massachusetts, home of first-in-the-nation, budget-busting universal health care? That would make national headlines. And a heck of a Kennedy legacy.

If I were a GOP donor looking to put a thumb on the Bay State scales, I’d be inclined to send my check to the national GOP with “FOR SCOTT BROWN, YOU DOLTS” written in the memo line.


* * *

Meantime, the Globe actually has begun to criticize Coakley. Columnist Brian McGrory hits her today for ducking a one-on-one debate:

If you're a registered voter in Massachusetts, your friendly Democratic Senate candidate, Martha Coakley, is sticking her thumb in your eye.

What fun.

Lots more re the race:

Power Line: Support Scott Brown

Real Clear Politics: Interview with Scott Brown

HillBuzz: Nobody comes between us and Senator Hottie McAwesome

Erick Erickson, RedState: Dems worried in Mass.

Jack Fowler, NRO: How now, Brown cause?

National Journal Hotline

Atlantic Wire

* * *

Above: Gov. Herter lights up

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